In the coming weeks, Advito, the independent consulting arm of BCD Travel, will reveal their much awaited 2010 Industry Forecast. The forecast will look at pricing trends, supplier negotiation strategies for air, hotel and ground transportation for the year ahead, as well as key trends analysis in corporate travel management practices.

Here is a sneak preview of some of the preliminary findings:

Air

• Overall, there will be small fare increases in 2010, or at least average ticket prices will rise slightly. During 2009, airlines kept lower fare classes open nearer to the point of departure rather than reducing the actual published fare. As a result average fares were pushed down, which in turn displayed reasonable load factors, even though yields have been poor.
• Demand will start to rise, gathering momentum in the second half of 2010. Since carriers have more capacity cuts planned, load factors are likely to improve further, giving airlines the confidence to start moving their price upwards.
• An improvement in demand levels will also instigate carriers to reduce the availability of the lowest priced tickets, resulting in an increase in the average ticket price paid.
• Negotiations will remain an excellent opportunity for corporate clients. Perhaps not quite as outstanding as in 2009, but there will still be impressive discounts for customers that genuinely deliver business to their airline suppliers. However, carriers may start to become more particular about their business mix and possibly withdraw deals for those who only purchase tickets in the lowest fare classes.

Hotels

• Rate cuts in Q2 of 2009 were greater than in Q1, but by the end of the second half of the year the pace of decline is likely to have stabilized.
• 2010 will still be a buyer’s market for corporate hotel programs. With economic recovery forecast to be very gradual, and hotels increasing their supply through the completion of building projects commissioned during the boom years, clients have an excellent opportunity to improve their rates - even if they renegotiated during 2009. Clients which did not renegotiate during 2009 will have an opportunity for significant rate reductions and should take the opportunity to make up for lost ground.

The full forecast is due to be released the third week in October, and will be available for download on www.advito.com and www.bcdtravel.com.